From Maxine Hong Kingston’s 1976 book, The Woman Warrior: Memoirs of a Girlhood Among Ghosts, which won the National Book Critics Award for Nonfiction and was recognized as one of TIME magazine’s top nonfiction books of the 1970s, Kingston legitimized the use of “perhapsing” as a valid literary craft technique in creative nonfiction.

In the first essay, “No Name Woman,” Kingston recounts the night her father’s sister committed suicide by jumping into a well with her newborn child in China. What she knew about the event could have been written on a matchbook cover.

Lisa Knoff discusses Kingston’s craft technique in the literary journal Brevity, published on January 9, 2019. “In order to write the essay, Kingston needed a deeper, fuller understanding of her aunt’s life and a clearer picture of what happened the night she drowned. Since the only information Kingston had was the bare-bones story that her mother had told her, Kingston chose to speculate an interior life for her aunt. I call this technique ‘perhapsing.’” 

Perhaps she had encountered him in the fields or on the mountain where the daughters-in-law collected fuel. Or perhaps he first noticed her in the marketplace. He was not a stranger because the village housed no strangers. She had to have dealings with him other than sex. Perhaps he worked in an adjoining field, or he sold her the cloth for the dress she sewed and wore. His demand must have surprised, then terrified her. She obeyed him; she always did as she was told.

– Kingston, The Woman Warrior, 1976

Kington’s use of “perhapsing” prompts us to consider what the truth of a moment might have been. 

As writers, how can we move beyond speculation as to what might have happened, which involves forming theories without solid evidence, and focus on what most likely did happen? How can we substantiate our claims about actual events rather than just imagining possibilities? 

Before continuing this discussion, readers of this article should understand that its premise may pertain to literary genres beyond just nonfiction or creative nonfiction. For example, although some historical fiction writers, such as Allan W. Eckert, are widely considered historical fiction writers, looking back, in some of their books, they were actually creative nonfiction writers. 

Historical fiction is a fictional narrative set in a specific period of the past, using real historical settings, events, or figures as a backdrop for a story featuring fictionalized characters and a plot. Its goal is to provide an emotionally engaging narrative experience and insight into a particular historical era, even though it contains fictionalized elements. If, however, those characters and the plot are real rather than fictional, it can most likely be regarded as creative nonfiction. 

In the literary journal, Creative Nonfiction, Issue 79, Lee Gutkind, says, “Essentially, the mission of creative nonfiction is to communicate ideas and information in a cinematic way using the literary techniques employed by fiction writers—dialogue, description, detail, action, scenes, to introduce the characters behind the facts with action and excitement in a more compelling story-oriented way than with straight exposition or traditional journalism.” In short, the goal of creative nonfiction is to tell true stories about real events, people, and experiences using the storytelling techniques found in fiction. It presents factual information in a literary and engaging style, often resembling a novel. The goal is to make reality as captivating as imagination.

Writers, then, whether nonfiction, creative nonfiction, historical fiction, or other genres, can move beyond simple speculation by using reasoned inference. This means reaching a conclusion based on a logical process and the available evidence, even if the outcome is not guaranteed. When we talk about “reason,” we refer to forming a judgment through logical processes. At the same time, “infer” means to deduce or conclude from the evidence at hand.

One of the most widely used methods for achieving reasoned inference is triangulation. This technique involves utilizing multiple sources, methods, or researchers to enhance the validity and reliability of findings. By providing a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of a phenomenon, triangulation significantly contributes to reasoned inference.

Using triangulation as a foundation for your writing offers several advantages, including:

• Enhancing the validity of research findings by demonstrating consistency across different data sources, methods, or perspectives.
• By using multiple sources of evidence, we reduce the likelihood of random errors and enhance confidence in the results’ reliability.
• This approach also helps mitigate potential biases that may arise from relying on a single source or method. 
• Exploring a phenomenon from different angles offers a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding. 
• When multiple sources and methods lead to similar conclusions, the research findings become more credible and trustworthy.

To illustrate, in my investigative memoir, Because: A CIA Coverup and a Son’s Odyssey to Find the Father He Never Knew, I use triangulation not to speculate on what might have occurred or been said, but to draw reasoned inferences about what most likely did happen or was communicated.

For instance, when I recreate the scene of my father’s death during an Air America flight—whose crash investigation report remains classified by the CIA even 60 years later, despite my numerous Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests over the past 10 years—I use a method of triangulation. This involves first referencing evidence from several of the 400 letters I discovered 26 years after his death, in which he:

• He expressed criticism of the corruption within the refugee reprocessing program. 
• He noted that his superiors were aware of this corruption and that, to their dismay, he refused their orders to lie or alter his reports. “…and no man will get me to write a white paper unless it’s the truth.”
• He was aware of the ramifications of his whistleblowing and the danger he faced. “I blame the High Brass and Ambassador here,”…” and I don’t give a damn if I am quieted.”
• He mentioned developing a national program with a directive to reduce corruption in the refugee processing system, stating that it would have “teeth in it.” 
• He planned to go over his superiors’ heads and meet with the man at the very top. “I’ll tell him what I know and what I think and let the chips fall where they may.” 

Second, through my archival research in the US and Vietnam:

• I discovered declassified documents revealing that he was killed the day he was set to pilot his program to combat corruption in that refugee processing program. 
• I also found evidence indicating that he was not the only passenger on the plane, as unauthorized individuals were on board. 
• Found evidence that other South Vietnamese officials were suspected of attempting to murder other United States Agency for International Development (USAID) advisors investigating their corruption.
• Plus, there is further proof from declassified documents that a provincial chief overseeing the refugee reprocessing program was under investigation for overstating the number of actual refugees, was deeply corrupt, and employed his officers to engage in racketeering and other illegal activities, including the murder of other officials, and that he most likely had a grudge against my father.

Third, I also draw on evidence from my field research:

• This includes insights from multiple sources from different agencies citing evidence indicating that gunfire occurred inside the plane rather than from the outside. 
• I learned from multiple former high-ranking Air America officials that this incident is the most covered-up crash of the war.
• The crash investigation report is strangely missing from the Air America archives.
• No officials from Air America ever saw or reviewed the crash investigation report.
• Former National Liberation Front (NLF)  fighters, including their leaders, who were familiar with the crash, and civilian eye-witnesses, contradict what the government told my family and the media about the crash.

I even add what I regard as a fourth source, when I reference my own correspondence with the CIA, which, over several FOIA requests I have filed, repeatedly indicates that they will never disclose what they know. This lack of transparency indirectly helps support my version of events. Additionally, I include real names in my narrative and cite all sources, including letters, archival materials, interviews, and correspondence, allowing others to study them.

And since all hypotheses or proposed explanations are testable and potentially refutable, like science should, we writers using reasoned inference as our foundation, should willingly challenge anyone to present a different version of events. Suppose their evidence proves more credible? Given science’s fundamental principle that findings are never absolute and always open to revision, we should accept the new evidence and revise our conclusions.

This is the process we can utilize to move beyond speculation to reasoned inference when writing. To summarize:

• Use multiple data sources, methods, or researchers to enhance the validity and reliability of what you write so that you provide a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of an event and/or conversation.
• Cite your sources so that others can examine them.
• Acknowledge your limitations and challenge others to present a different version of events.
• Be willing to accept new evidence and revise your conclusions.

 

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JAMES B. WELLS’s investigative memoir, Because: A CIA Coverup and a Son’s Odyssey to Find the Father He Never Knew, chronicles his decades-long search to uncover the truth about his father’s CIA-classified death in Vietnam in 1965. Since its June 2025 release, the memoir has received nine literary awards. Wells, a retired criminology professor at Eastern Kentucky University, holds an M.S. in Criminal Justice, a Ph.D. in Research, and an MFA in Creative Writing. He’s authored sixty-five books, chapters, essays and articles, plus over a hundred and fifty research reports for local, state, and federal agencies. More information at https://jamesbwells.com.